[NYAPRS Enews] NY Medicaid Could Take on Thousands of New Beneficiaries due to COVID related Job Losses: Report

[Harvey Rosenthal]

NYAPRS Note: The following analysis finds that NY is better equipped to handle a significant increase of those who have lost jobs due to the pandemic...partly due to the 6% increase in the federal share of Medicaid that Congress provided during an earlier COVID relief package. Congress must not diminish this share...in fact, the House enacted HEROES proposal for the next COVID package would increase this share to 14%.

Covid-19 Will Put State's Medicaid Program to the Test
Crain's Health Pulse  June 9, 2020

Enrollment in New York's Medicaid program could grow by hundreds of thousands of beneficiaries as workers lose their jobs-and their insurance coverage-as part of the economic shock waves generated by Covid-19.

A new analysis<https://uhfnyc.org/publications/> from the United Hospital Fund found the state is better equipped to handle a spike in workers seeking Medicaid benefits than during the Great Recession of 2007 through 2009.

"The infrastructure that's in place to connect people to coverage right now is significantly more robust than it was in the Great Recession," said Nathan Myers, director of UHF's Medicaid Institute.

Since the recession, New York created its New York State of Health marketplace to allow people to sign up for Medicaid, Child Health Plus, Essential Plan and Qualified Health Plan coverage. The Essential Plan debuted in 2016 as an option for New Yorkers who aren't eligible for Medicaid because of their income or immigration status. It's an insurance product heavily subsidized by the federal government and could make coverage accessible to more people during the economic downturn.

New York already covers about 6 million people under Medicaid, which is about 2 million more than enrollment in December 2007. That number is expected to grow.

During the two-year recession, Medicaid enrollment grew by more than 400,000.

Between February and April alone, New York's Medicaid enrollment had a net gain of 136,000. That monthly growth rate would be four times as large as the monthly rate during the first 12 months of the Great Recession. Enrollment also tended to lag behind spikes in unemployment.

"That suggests we might see a long tail in Medicaid enrollment growth," said Emily Arsen, a senior research analyst and the lead author of the report. "People will be more incentivized to seek health coverage because they're concerned about their health in a way they weren't in the Great Recession, and accessing Medicaid coverage is substantially easier than it was."

The Urban Institute last month estimated changes<https://www.rwjf.org/en/library/research/2020/05/how-the-covid-19-recession-could-affect-health-insurance-coverage.html> in insurance status by state based on how many people are unemployed. It projected an increase of 641,000 Medicaid enrollees in New York if the state unemployment rate is 15% and a 1.2 million increase if state unemployment reaches 25%.

The state's unemployment rate rose to 15% in April, compared with 3.6% in the same month in 2019. More businesses are operating this week as New York City entered phase one of the state's reopening plan and Long Island and Westchester County prepared to move to phase two. Phase two allows for more office-based businesses to open as well as real estate services. But the state's hard-hit hospitality sector, which shed about two-thirds of its jobs in April, will remain closed.

The state is getting some federal support. One of Congress's earliest coronavirus relief packages included a 6.2 percentage point increase in the federal government's contribution to Medicaid costs.

But the timing of the Covid-19 pandemic, which occurred just as the Trump administration was implementing its new public-charge policy in February, could adversely affect immigrants. The rule could make it harder for immigrants to obtain a green card if they access certain public benefits, such as federally-funded Medicaid.

"There's an equity aspect in access to Medicaid, particularly immigrant communities who might be concerned about public charge, and making sure they're eligible to enroll in Medicaid," Arsen said. -Jonathan LaMantia

Harvey Rosenthal
NYAPRS Chief Executive Officer
Office: 518-436-0008; C: 518-527-0564
harveyr at nyaprs.org<mailto:harveyr at nyaprs.org>
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